On Monday in Washington, President Bush made one last ditch attempt for Darfur: he held talks with the least-worst person he could.

That person was Salva Kiir, who is both the Vice-President of Sudan and President of Southern Sudan. Hours earlier, the administration announced it was authorizing an emergency shipment of supplies to Darfur from Rwanda using two C-17 cargo planes. Another 240 containers of goods will be moved from ports into Darfur to help the fledgling UN-African Union peacekeeping mission.

That leaves me with two questions: Will the supplies do any good? And what exactly is the United States hoping to achieve?

First the supplies: The UN-AU hybrid mission is only at 63 percent of its strength, more than two years after the force was authorized, wracked with one difficulty after another (as if patrolling a space the size of France wasn't hard enough.) Cars and equipment have been stolen; fuel was siphoned from planes at night. Journalists have told me that Sudanese government forces are responsible.

But after months of quietly thwarting further deployment, the Sudanese government has finally swung open the door, "leaving the ball on the side of the UN," International Crisis Group Horn of Africa Director Fouad Hikmat tells me. It's up to UN member countries, particularly the U.S. which provides over a quarter of the budget, to handle the logistics of sending in peacekeepers. Will they be able to make a difference? Hikmat's read: "This is very very very good."

At first glance, it looks like President Bush is trying to cement his legacy as a genocide fighter. But if Bush is thinking Darfur, why meet with Kiir, a Southerner with little record in the region?

Country-wide voting is scheduled for Sudan this year -- part of a 6-year Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the decades long war between North and South Sudan in 2005. The light at the end of that long tunnel for Southerners is a vote on secession in 2011. If all goes according to plan, they'll vote on whether to remain autonomous, or become independent.

Like many Southerners, Kiir favors secession. But countrywide elections have to happen first -- and Darfur is in no shape to hold them. "[Southern politicians] for a long time weren't involved in Darfur, they were focused inward," Hikmat tells me. Now, they see they should become engaged because Darfur is a very serious threat to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement [and their secession vote]."

One more complication: the International Criminal Court may soon issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir. That makes Kiir the international powerbroker with the most credibility.

So Bush's and Kiir's interest may be right in line. For now. The U.S. should think long and hard about whether they want to back a secession, an outcome that Kiir favors and that Khartoum will certainly fight to prevent. It is an open secret that both South Sudan and the Khartoum government are arming in anticipation of the referendum in 2011. Yet another dilemma for the new President to look forward to.

Photo: Dennis Brack-Pool/Getty Images

In recent days, the number of pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia has started to fall. French troops arrested eight pirates on January 1st, turning them over to the Somali government. The EU mission also saved a Greek tanker from kidnapping on January 2nd. A Danish warship sunk yet another pirate vessel after warning flares set that ship on fire (the pirates were rescued from the wreck, and remain onboard the Danish vessel). And a Chinese cargo ship flat out-maneuvered the pirates on January 2nd.

A round of applause might be in order. After a slew of hijackings last fall, the world's navies finally seemed to get serious about fighting the pirates. Previously, many countries feared that arresting pirates could lead to awkward legal proceedings and even amnesty suits by suspects claiming they could be put to death at home if extradited. All good points. But then, so are the tens of thousands of ships that pass through the Gulf of Aden each year. From the looks of it, squeamish fighters once reluctant to pick up pirates are increasingly keen to do just that. Whatever they're doing, it seems to be working.

On land, however, few are noticing the calm at sea. Ethiopian troops are at last pulling out of Somalia, as they promised to do late last year and the mortars are still flying in Mogadishu.

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

After Kenya's, Zimbabwe's and Nigeria's recent election mayhem, observers worried Ghana might fall into the same electoral dissaray. In the runup to the recent presidential vote, both major candidates claimed they were set for victory.

Initial polls in December left a tightly contested race -- with the two leading candidates within just one percent of each other. The governing party candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo and the opposition leader and former professor John Atta Mills bitterly contested the second round of elections. After being seperated by just 23,000 votes, Ghana's final constituency voted on Saturday and catupluted Mills to the presidency.

And thus Ghana avoided the election trap. The first African country to gain its independence in 1960 holds its reputation as a democracy where power has been transfered peacefully and often, with only minor incidents (like this one). The outgoing president didn't try to extend his term, and he urged a peaceful transition. Mills' opponent conceded gracefully and the incoming president promised to be a "president for all."

Good. But now, as many governments have learned the hard way, the more difficult part is yet to come, and Ghana finds itself in an unusually precarious (or promising) turning point.

Ghana is a commodity-dependent economy in a market reeling from bubble and burst. Gold, cocoa and timber make much of the country's GDP, and agriculture employs over half the population. The fall in commodity prices spells hope and disaster all at once; lucrative exports will suffer, as will farmers' bottom lines. But urban food prices -- once crushing for the average Ghanaian -- will come down from sky high.

And despite Ghana's healthy growth rate, the impoverished majority is hungry for prosperity to trickle down. Offshore oil -- found in the summer of 2007 -- once promised to pay for a host of new public services. Now, the sunken petrol price stop drilling before it even begins.

The incoming president seems to have a good head about the economic policies needed to move forward. But he'll need the world economy, the increasingly corrupt bureaucracy, and his country's belief in democracy to be on his side, as well.

Photo: PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images

The first thing to say about the coup attempt that followed the death of Guinean President Lansana Conté is that it's something of a miracle it took 24 years. The president, who died of diabetes Monday, was hardly a beloved exemplar of democratic values. By the time of his death, even the once-loyal Army was starting to mutiny over low pay. In fact, for many West Africa watchers, Guinea's fall into chaos has only been a matter of time. 

For more than two years leading up the president's death, political wrangling and unrest were the norm. General strikes in 2006 paralyzed the country. Conté refused to leave power and poverty was consuming the country. I was in Senegal at the time, and the stories we heard there were fierce: Strikes were so strictly adhered to that any passing soul on the street would be shot. There was violence between police and civilians -- as has also become the norm in times of crisis in Guinea.

In the compromise that ended those strikes, the president finally named a prime minister. There have been several in recent years, and the most recent, Ahmed Tidiane Souare, was a close Conté ally whom the International Crisis group wrote in June "puts reform at risk." Democratic legislative elections were scheduled for this month.

Instead, Guinea got a coup. 

So now what? For now, the military has the reins, despite claims from Souare that he retains control. The perpetrators of the coup, calling themselves the National Council for Democracy and Development, have called a curfew and promised elections in two years. As in previous times of tension, soldiers fill the streets and much of Conakry is shut down. Companies, such as mining giant BHP, are closing offices for now. Other countries in the region are condemning the coup.

So what at first seemed like a Christmas miracle for Conakry has taken a dangerous turn for the worse.

Photo: SEYLLOU/AFP/Getty Images

There is a crisis. People are dying. Sending peacekeepers sounds great -- they come with U.N. neutrality, a mandate (usually) to use force, and the promise to do something. Who doesn't want to help out in places like the DR Congo, Zimbabwe, and Somalia?

If only it were so easy, writes the U.S. Government Accountability Office in a report released today. Future peacekeeping missions will be plagued by complex logistics, extensive troop needs, daunting political circumstances, and a reluctance from member states to donate troops and resources.

But the report is even more jarring. One cannot help but notice that the "hypothetical" situation described in the report sounds not-so-vaguely reminiscent of Somalia, to which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggested sending peacekeepers just this week.

The potential new mission’s area of operations would have limited infrastructure and utilities, lacking roads, buildings, and water, and would thus require increased logistical planning...the potential new operation would be in a high-threat environment, political factions would recently have been fighting for control of the country, and there would be large numbers of internally displaced persons...According to UN planners, a potential new force would likely require units with the capability to deter threats from armed factions supported by international terrorist groups, which previous operations did not have to take into account to the same degree.

Sound familiar? There are only few countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have that level of chaos with possible international terrorists to boot -- and Sudan already has two U.N. missions.

So what would a peacekeeping mission to Somalia look like? This "hypothetical" country would require 21,000 troops, 1,500 police, 4,000 to 5,000 civilian staff, and a costly helicopter force to supply aerial surveillance 24 hours a day. According to the report:

There are a limited number of countries that provide troops and police with needed capabilities to meet current needs, and some potential contributors may be unwilling to provide forces for a new operation due to such political factors as their own national interests and the environmental and security situation in the host country.

The U.N. is already short 18,000 troops to staff its mandated missions around the world, and is missing 22 percent of the needed civilian personnel. The GAO warns that, though there are efforts to help the U.N. close the gap, the U.S. has failed to support some incentives such as increased protection for civilian forces. And Somalia is far less appealing a locale than Liberia, Cote D'Ivoire, and maybe even Darfur.

So peacekeeping is failing -- or it might, if the world tries this particular case. Blue helmets are not one-size-fits-all countries. Hopefully Congress will read this "hypothetical" between the lines.

Photo: STUART PRICE/AFP/Getty Images

An undersea cable near Egypt in the Mediterranean was cut today, disrupting Internet access for millions:

The main damage through is to the four submarine cables running across the Mediterranean and through the Suez Canal.

It is thought that 65% of traffic to India was down, while services to Singapore, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Taiwan and Pakistan have also been severely affected.

The cause of the cut is unknown though there was some seismic activity recorded near Malta. This certainly seems like a pretty serious story:

Jonathan Wright - director of wholesale products at Interoute which manages part of the optical fibre network - told the BBC that the effects of the break would be felt for many days.

"This will grind economies to a halt for a short space of time," he said "If you look at, say, local financial markets who trade with European and US markets, the speed at which they get live data will be compromised." [...]

"We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East," said Mr Wright.

"These three circuits account for 90% of the traffic and we're going to see more international phone calls dropping and a huge degradation in the quality of local internet,"

 

If financial transactions as far away as Singapore were really blocked by a minor undersea earthquake near Malta, it's a pretty sobering reminder of the fragile physical ties that make our virtual world possible.

It isn't every day that Somalia beats China in a battle of military technology... and still loses.

On Tuesday, it was the well-armed, satellite-phone-wielding Somali pirates who held up a Chinese cargo ship. The crew members' defense? Petrol bombs! The makeshift Molotov cocktails worked well enough to hold off the pirates until an international patrol helicopter intervened.

No wonder China is dispatching ships to join the international contingent of navies patrolling against piracy in the gulf of Aden. 1,265 Chinese ships have passed through that same corridor this year and 20 percent of those came under attack. Not good odds.

Alas, should we just start shipping our Suez-bound goods over land? I'll let you see a lay of the land and decide for yourself: the president has fired the prime minister. Parliament is impeaching the president. The U.S. wants to send peacekeepers, but U.N. diplomats fear that's suicide. The entire country is food insecure, and about half is a humanitarian emergency.

There's good reason that Darfur is a household name. After over five years of crisis, little has improved, and by some measures, things are worse than ever. Now add this to the mix: a report by the Darfur Consortium says that slavery -- the abduction of men, women, and children for physical and sexual labor -- is rampant.

In addition to how despicable slavery already is, (for more on the contemporary slave trade, check out Benjamin Skinner's FP piece from March 2008) this is also another reason to worry about the Darfur crisis' evolution. Just look next door to Uganda and you can see how slavery tears a society apart. There, the abductions of children by the rebel Lord's Resistance Army have forced an underground society of young people who walk miles each day to find safe haven in cities and towns, for fear of abductions in the village homes.

Now, imagine trying to rehabilitate those children. Abducted children -- and now in Darfur, men and women too -- have been robbed of their will, their security net, and their lives. That's a lot of rebuilding, and it means that the conflict is just that much more entrenched. In Uganda, government and neighboring troops have been looking to stop the Lord's Resistance Army led by Joseph Kony since 1986. The 200,000 abducted children have no other sense of normality than this.

If slavery is indeed now a staple of Darfur, as evidence seems to indicate, that means that peace agreements, peacekeepers, and even aid won't be enough to stop the conflict. Peacekeepers, for example, will have to grapple with the presence of civilians among rebels contingents. Peace agreements will need to include extensive emancipation of souls.

The line between the ambiguous sides of this conflict has just become even more blurred.

Photo: THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images

As I wrote on Monday, the United States is hoping to send U.N. peacekeepers into turbulent Somalia. Yesterday, a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the use of force on ground in Somalia to stop pirating passed. In a press briefing afterward, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was very cryptic in response to the final question:

QUESTION: (Inaudible) does this resolution mean that –

 

SECRETARY RICE: Thank you.

 

QUESTION: -- you can intervene militarily in Somalia?

 

SECRETARY RICE: We – there is a very – there is a very clear, longstanding understanding in international politics about the role of UN Security Council resolutions in this regard, and the fact that it is the Transitional Federal Government that is desirous of not having their territory used for safe haven for pirates. And so that is what has just taken place here in the Council.

Stay tuned...

Apparently, some Kenyans are still celebrating Barack Obama's winning of the U.S. presidential election last month. But a Kenyan high court pulled the plug on one celebratory activity that was scheduled to take place in Nairobi last Saturday, the 13th: a bullfight.

Animal-welfare activists said the competitions, in which two bulls have a go at one another, are cruel. Check out the full National Geographic video report here.

According to Jeffrey Gettleman of the New York Times, the recent surge of U.N.-inspired naval patrols sent to thwart out of control piracy aren't having much of an effect on the Somali pirates.

More than a dozen warships from Italy, Greece, Turkey, India, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Britain, Malaysia and the United States have joined the hunt.

And yet, in the past two months alone, the pirates have attacked more than 30 vessels, eluding the naval patrols, going farther out to sea and seeking bigger, more lucrative game, including an American cruise ship and a 1,000-foot Saudi oil tanker.

The pirates are recalibrating their tactics, attacking ships in beelike swarms of 20 to 30 skiffs, and threatening to choke off one of the busiest shipping arteries in the world, at the mouth of the Red Sea."

Outgunned and outnumbered, the pirates "seem to be getting only wilier."

While some ships have taken to alternative, and largely unsuccessful tactics -- the crew of a Filipino boat hurled tomatoes at assailants -- merchant vessels are now hiring private security guards, who offer more hands-on suggestions: "We should make 'em walk the plank," says one.

When I asked Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper what one would need to eliminate piracy off the Somali coast, he answered with a question: Are you fighting them on land or at sea?

Over the weekend, it seems the Bush administration answered: both.

In addition to the international vessels patrolling offshore, a U.S. resolution is already circulating in the U.N. Security Council calling for a limited U.N. peacekeeping force to bring stability to the East African nation. The United States also wants Ethiopian troops to stay through the U.S. presidential transition. And they'd like to add Eritrea, Ethopia's breakaway neighbor and favorite adversary, to its state sponsors of terrorism list.

Talk about a hard sell.

First, the administration is calling for a light U.N. mission, in a country where even heavy force has been ineffective.

Second, no one -- not the Ethiopians, not the African Union, not the United Nations -- wants to go to Somalia. For the two-year lifetime of the tiny African Union mission, the international community has struggled to find troops for the operation.

Finally, you can expect this to ratchet up tensions in the region. Eritrea is indeed rumored to supply the Somali Islamists with weapons. But Ethiopia and Eritrea have an ongoing border dispute that has left both sides exceedingly militarized. Acceding to Ethiopian wishes by putting Eritrea on the terror list is like playing Russia roulette. With all live rounds.

After a weekend in which the Somali president fired his prime minister (only to have him effectively re-instated by parliament) there is little reason to believe that the weak government will not fall instantly once foreign troops are gone.

Light a match, and the whole place might just blow.

Photo: JOSE CENDON/AFP/Getty Images

Remember when Robert Mugabe said Zimbabwe's cholera epidemic had ended, the same day the WHO said another 60,000 people were at risk? Apparently that was a hilarious joke:

[T]oday George Charamba, Mr Mugabe’s spokesman, told The Herald newspaper – a government mouthpiece – that the octogenarian president was using “sarcasm” when he made the statement.

ROFL! He sure got us good.

The Herald also has a truly batty article today, saying that the United States engineered the outbreak.

Photo: ALESSANDRO DI MEO/AFP/Getty Images

A series of troubling events are positioning Somalia for a complete collapse. In a place where things "couldn't be worse," they are about to.

First, Ethiopian troops -- which came into Somalia in 2006 and installed a transitional government -- will leave by the end of the year.

Now, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi says the weak African Union Peacekeeping force is leaving too.

One of the main Islamic political leaders from the Ethiopia-ousted government -- Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed -- just came back from exile.

And if you have read any news in the last two months, you know that Somali pirates are the scourge of the high seas.

Oh yes, and Somalia has the world's highest malnutrition rates -- often reaching 30 percent of the population. Seventy percent of the population has no access to clean water.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has declared Ethiopia's peace-producing mission accomplished. Mission futile would be more accurate. The transition government -- meant to take back control from Islamic political factions -- is instead weak, powerless, and losing control of much of the country. Islamists have claimed new territory and now control much of the land outside Mogadishu. Ethiopian troops have poured into Somalia in for one last attempt to root out the radical al-Shabaab group.

In short, the world's most failed state is about to fall below its exceedingly low expectations.

Photo: JOSE CENDON/AFP/Getty Images

Binyavanga Wainaina has written a viciously funny step-by-step "guide" for aspiring African dictators in South Africa's Mail & Guardian. Some of the highlights:

Rule 3. Make America or China happy. Make Israel and Saudi Arabia very happy. Become a Muslim, like Idi Amin. Visit Moammar Gadaffi often. He likes African leaders. We do not know why. Pray with George Bush and let him see your soul. Make your country's leading supermodel the ambassador to France and Italy. Ask her to wear a mini when presenting her papers to Nicholas Sarkozy...

Rule 6. Colonial countries expected little of Africans. Maintain this illusion...

Rule 10. A free press is important. But have shares in all major media and make sure that you allow them to be very critical of everything, except you. You can, these days, secretly pay bloggers. They can say, for example, that your economic policy is Keynesian, but they should never say you are a "corrupt Zulu warlord"...

If all these things fail and you find yourself in State House surrounded by screaming citizens carrying homemade weaponry, make sure you have a Hummer (Raila Odinga) in your garage. They are cheap now in America. You can burst out of your palace and make your way to Somalia, where you can become a pirate who earns $50-million a year.

Of course, if you don't have government connections in an unstable African country, you may have to start a country of your own. FP's got your back.

(Hat tip: Ethan Zuckerman)

Update: Apparently I had a brain malfunction and Beth flagged this last week in Smart takes. Sorry about that.

Photo: WALTER DHLADHLA/AFP/Getty Images

As a world conference on curtailing Somali piracy gets underway in Nairobi, the Bush administration announced today that it will push for international action -- a last-ditch attempt to stabilize the East African nation.

Good luck matey, you'll need it. As Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper tells FP in this week's Seven Questions, it will take weeks -- maybe months -- even to get coastal surveillance under control.

And then there is the problem of instability on land that drives the trade in ransom. The administration tried and failed in 2006 to bring a government of "good guys" to power. Halting piracy (a symptom of the same disease) won't be any easier. Back then, the United States funneled money to the right people to set things in motion. Too late this time -- ransom payments already keep the pirates rolling in the millions.

In short, this is no easy problem, and there are no modern fixes for the most medieval of scourges. Despite the 1,400 German soldiers pledged for the $1.4 million proposed project of anti-piracy, you just can't buy time.

Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper has the goods.

Photo: KHALED FAZAA/AFP/Getty Images

The Economist's Democracy in America blog defends the editorial on Kenya's election that earned the magazine a spot on our worst predictions list, saying it was "not a prediction nor was it a conclusion."

You can read it here to judge for yourself.

What happened to the good old days when kids just used to sniff glue to get high? The BBC reports that South African teens have turned the trend of substituting prescriptions drugs for recereational drugs -- like snorting Ritalin -- into an unexpected venture: smoking anti-retroviral HIV/AIDS drugs to get lit.

Aside from the obvious reasons why this recently discovered habit -- grinding up the pills into powder and then mixing it with pain killers or smoking it with marijuana -- is so distressing, teenage users are getting their "stash" from HIV/AIDS patients and health care workers responsible for distributing the medication.

This raises serious questions about the infrastructure for a crucial medical service already stunted by reluctant leaders and lack of funding. It also means that people who need these drugs to stay healthy aren't taking them as prescribed, while others, barely able to get these drugs as it is, have a new obstacle to contend with -- users who are willing to pay and the health care workers willing to sell what precious drugs they have to the highest bidder.

I hate to think that Barbara Hogan, South Africa's newly appointed health minister, upon whom many hopes have been pinned, will be wasting any energy or valuable dollars on keeping drugs away from a foolish few, when so many are in real need.

GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images

Peace talks opened in Nairobi today between the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group led by General Laurent Nkunda. There is one reason -- above the many other good ones -- that I am unfortunately a skeptic: the U.N.-appointed moderator, Olusegun Obasanjo.

At first glance, Obasanjo is a great pick. He's an African statesman who helped bring democracy to Nigeria after a history that included a brutal civil war, a string of military dictators (he was one of them), and years of economic decline. "Baba," his nickname meaning "Papa', aptly characterized his ruling style: a benevolent elected dictator who -- for the most part -- had control over an unwieldly country.

But then there are the details. Obasanjo managed those various parties through patronage -- granting monies here and there, favoritism or punishment to this and that. He was the master of holding peace summits with little goal other than the summit itself. Behind the scenes, the governors under his watch paid off militants, sometimes supported them, and skimmed oil wealth off the top. The status quo was stable only so far as everyone could be paid off. Today, without his personality to manage the situation, the delta is on the brink of exploding.

Then there are the elections. In Obasanjo's last days as president, he tried (unsuccesfully) to change the constitution so that he could run for a third term. In the neighborhood I used to live, rumor had it that truckloads of money were delivered to the homes of skeptical senators. When elections did take place, they were so massively rigged that the ruling party easily won.

So can Obasanjo bring the two sides together in the DR Congo? I sure hope so. Perhaps his wiley personality can do just that. I just hope his example isn't the one they follow.

ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images

The Anglican Church in North America announced its plans yesterday to create a breakaway church to protest the ordination of an openly gay bishop five years ago. Up to this point, Anglicans in the United States and Canada who objected to homosexuality had allied themselves with churches abroad -- namely, the Anglican Church of Nigeria.

As FP's recent list of the world's top religious powerbrokers explained, Nigerian Bishop Peter Akinola has profited greatly from his status as the world's anti-gay Anglican leader. So today's announcement might sound like bad news to Akinola, who could easily be described as violently anti-gay.

After my time in Nigeria, however, I suspect the opposite. Akinola made waves when he created his own breakaway church in protest against homosexuality; the fact that others are following simply means his movement is catching on. The man behind the split will still retain strong influence among Anglicans.

And perhaps more importantly for Akinola, he is still strong -- and getting stronger -- at home. Akinola's views on homosexuality are wildly popular in Nigeria, where conservative Christian values are in a neck-in-neck competition with convertive Islamic ones for converts. Religious violence flared up last week at the flashpoint of north and south Nigeria (where Islam meets Christianity, to a large extent). Akinola criticized the government for inaction.

Akinola can make a strong case as the founder of the breakaway movements within the Anglican Church. And he can take credit for lashing out against homosexuality in the church. Whatever your view of the matter, that kind of symbolic power doesn't fade fast.

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images